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Climate Prediction:

H.contortus survives in warm and moist conditions. Transmission periods are usually considered to be between 15-37 ◦C (Van Wyke and Reynecke 2011). The R0 model predicts when climate is going to be suitable for parasite transmission.

Mozambique Climate:

Dry season between April and September. This is reflected in the Haemonchus risk graph. Haemonchus has got a lower transmission risk during this time. The wet season is between October to March. During this period there is a much higher transmission risk for Haemonchus.

graph showing parasite transmission risk for mozambique
Figure 1: Decadal Averages of Haemonchus Contortus (barber’s pole worm) infection risk

Mozambique is generally a tropical climate with some temperate and steppe areas scattered along its western border with South Africa. It tends to rain closer to the coast. As a result, the risk changes in different areas of the country. Further work will soon show where and when these areas are most at risk.

map of climate zones in mozambique
Figure 2: Current Climate Zones in Mozambique,
Beck, H.E., Zimmermann, N. E., McVicar, T. R., Vergopolan, N., Berg, A., & Wood, E. F. – “Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution”. Nature Scientific Data. DOI:10.1038/sdata.2018.214.

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