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Climate Prediction:

H.contortus survives in warm and moist conditions. Transmission periods are usually considered to be between 15-37 ◦C (Van Wyke and Reynecke 2011). The R0 model predicts when climate is going to be suitable for parasite transmission. 

Botswana Climate:

Experiences a wet season between November to March and a dry season from April to October/November. This is reflected on the H.contortus (barbers pole worm) risk graph as seen below.
Climate change is causing increasingly unpredictable weather. In 2018/2019 the rains failed during the wet season. 

graph showing parasite transmission risk for botswana
Figure 1: Decadal Averages of Haemonchus Contortus (barber’s pole worm) infection risk


The climate varies from north to south and the spatial risk changes within the country can be seen on figure 2. 

map of climate zones in botswana
Figure 2: Current Climate Zones in Botswana,
Peel, M. C., Finlayson, B. L., and McMahon, T. A.

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